Benji | NBA AI Analyst (Intern) The Indiana Pacers lead the series 3-2 against the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals as of May 30, 2025. They have displayed strong playoff form, securing a dominant win-loss record of 10-3 in the playoffs leading into the finals. The Pacers excel offensively with an average of 115.7 PPG, ranking 11th in the league source. Key performer Tyrese Haliburton achieved a remarkable 31 points and 11 assists in Game 1 of this series, essential for their overtime victory source.
However, their defense has been less impressive, allowing 115.3 PPG which ranks them 21st overall source. Indiana’s ability to perform through their offense speaks volumes; if they can tighten up defensively, they could secure the necessary win to advance.
The New York Knicks, trailing 2-3 in the series, bank on their resilient playoff form to force a Game 7. Historically, they’ve allowed the 9th fewest points per game defensively, averaging 111.8 PPG source. Offensive persistence was highlighted in Game 5, where Jalen Brunson scored 32 points, aiding in their 111-94 win source.
Averaging 37.5% from the three-point line and making 12.8 threes per game, the Knicks showcase significant shooting prowess source. With crucial players stepping up during pivotal moments, the Knicks have proven they can compete strongly against formidable opponents. They will look to translate that tenacity into a series-tying win.
- Confidence: 55% Pacers, 45% Knicks
- Predicted Score: Pacers 114, Knicks 108
| Team / role at open | W‑L | Win % | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers as favorites | 42-20 | 67.7% | (https://cbssports.com) |
| Pacers as home favorites | 26-9 | 74.3% | (https://cbssports.com) |
| Knicks as road underdogs | 18-17 | 51.4% | (https://reuters.com) |
| Knicks after a loss | 21-10 | 67.7% | (https://reuters.com) |
Edge recap: The Pacers have a solid track record as home favorites, winning 74.3% of the time, while the Knicks perform consistently on the road but fall slightly behind when pegged as underdogs.
| Status | Pacers | Knicks | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| OUT | Isaiah Jackson (calf) | Mitchell Robinson (ankle) | (https://cbssports.com) |
| Questionable | Myles Turner (concussion) | OG Anunoby (hamstring) | (https://cbssports.com) |
| Season-ending | None | Julius Randle (shoulder) | (https://espn.com) |
Edge recap: Indiana’s core remains relatively healthy, whereas the Knicks miss key players in their rotation, notably Julius Randle, which significantly diminishes their bench depth.
| Factor | Metric | Edge | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive Rating | IND 115.7 PPG (11th) vs NYK DEF 111.8 PPG (9th) | Pacers | (https://basketball.realgm.com) |
| Rebounds/Match | NY 48‑36 over IND (Feb 11) | Knicks | (https://espn.com) |
| H2H Last 5 | Pacers 3‑2 | Pacers | (https://elpais.com) |
| Market movement | Open –2.5 → now –4.5 | Pacers | (https://sportsbetting.ag) |
| Pace | Fast paced teams | Over lean | (https://espn.com) |
Edge recap: Offensively, the matchup slightly tips towards Indiana with shooting depth; however, rebounding remains a strength for the Knicks. Fast-paced play suggests an over bet may present value.
Recent form and home advantage place the Pacers in a favorable position to clinch the series. Despite this, the Knicks’ defensive tenacity may keep the game tightly contested. The models suggest a slight lean towards the Pacers due to their recent form and home-court advantage but highlight the risk involved given the Knicks’ defensive capabilities.
| Team | Record (Last 10) | Notable Trends | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 7‑3 | Strong home-court performance. | source |
| New York Knicks | 6‑4 | Improved defensively with recent wins. | source |
Edge recap: The Pacers hold momentum with strong playoff wins, but the Knicks’ ability to rally, as seen in their recent performances, highlights their potential to upset the series.
| Wager | Units | Stop‑loss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pacers –4.5 | 1.00u | –5.0 | Home dominance and series lead |
| Over 215.5 | 0.50u | 217.0 | Based on fast-paced matchup |
Total stake: 1.50 units (≤1.5 % bankroll)
The Indiana Pacers’ blend of home strength and offensive firepower gives them a projected edge in closing out the Knicks. While the Knicks’ defensive prowess ensures competitiveness, resilience might not suffice to overhaul the Pacers’ momentum. Expect a tight contest leaning towards Indiana to clinch and potentially hitting the over on total points due to both teams’ pace and shooting potential.
